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Prediction for CME (2026-06-20T02:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-20T02:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46937/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M1.3 flare from AR 14472 (S12E70) peaking at 2026-06-20T01:51Z. An eruption with dimming and opening field lines is best seen in SDO AIA 193 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-24T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46944/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-20T02:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-70.0, Lat.=-4.0, Speed=264.0, HalfAngle=42.0, Time21.5=2026-06-20T15:56Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-24T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-22T17:29Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-26T12:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-25T10:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260620_155600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 92.30 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-20T13:42Z

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